The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s economy for 2020 - it expects a 5% drop in the GDP (a 3.9% decline in our state budget). While previously the growth of the gross domestic product was expected at 3.5%.

“If social distancing is maintained longer than anticipated, the recession could be much deeper, and it will take years to get back to the 2019 GDP per capita levels again,” the EBRD report says.

A 5% decrease is still an optimistic assessment of the economic decline. An even worse scenario can be expected as we look at today's report of the Ministry of Economy concerning the downturn of Ukraine’s GDP by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2020. This indicator minimally reflects the effects of quarantine, since reporting included indicators for only two weeks in March.

In the second quarter, the GDP will undoubtedly be much worse due to total downtime in the economy. It was recorded throughout April, and will probably continue in May and the following months until the work of public transport, as well as schools and preschool institutions, is restored. In addition, we must not forget about the complex and step-by-step exit of businesses from the quarantine. Not all companies will be opened due to low demand from consumers, whose financial incomes have fallen dramatically.

Andrey Pshenichny for the site dubinsky.pro